Política Internacional
e Segurança
Lusíada
Lusíada
Série I, n.º 21-22 (2021)
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ISSN 1647-1342
1. Política internacional - Periódicos
2. Segurança internacional - Periódicos
I – PAVIA, José Francisco Lynce Zagalo, 1967-
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Título Lusíada. Política internacional e segurança
Numeração S. 1, n. 21-22 (2021)
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ISSN 1647-1342
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Lusíada. Política Internacional e Segurança, 21-22 (2021) 3
SUMÁRIO
Apresentação ................................................................................................................. 5
Procedimento de arbitragem científica .................................................................... 7
Turkiye as an emerging power in the horn of Africa
Selcan Karabektas ...................................................................................................................... 9
Japan and the nuclear dilemma
Vítor Ramon Fernandes ................................................................................................. 31
“O Mar Vermelho como espaço de competição geopolítica”
António Gonçalves Alexandre ....................................................................................... 53
Da ciência policial
Pedro Clemente ............................................................................................................ 103
Segurança partilhada: limites da cláusula de defesa mútua
Ani Davidova ................................................................................................................ 121
As políticas de Segurança e o papel dos serviços de informações
Adélio Neiva da Cruz .................................................................................................... 155
Lusíada. Política Internacional e Segurança, 21-22 (2021) 5
NOTA DE ABERTURA E POLÍTICA EDITORIAL
Lançamos agora o vigésimo primeiro/vigésimo segundo
número da Revista Lusíada Política Internacional e Segurança.
A pandemia do COVID-19 e alterações ao nível do centro de
investigação onde a revista está filiada condicionaram, um pouco,
os prazos de lançamento. Temos, no entanto, como é costume,
um número variado, pleno de actualidade, com autores de várias
origens e temáticas muito diversas. Apraz-me realçar a inclusão de
artigos de alunos e ex-alunos da Universidade Lusíada. Também
é de salientar o facto de a Revista já estar indexada na EBSCO,
Latindex e Google Scholar. Outros processos de indexação estão
em vias de conclusão. Recorde-se que estes números, bem com
os anteriores, estão disponíveis online, em acesso aberto, através
da plataforma Open Journal System. Este passo era fundamental
para uma maior disseminação do conhecimento científico aqui
produzido e para alargarmos o número daqueles que nos lêem e que
poderão ser futuros colaboradores e autores. Tentaremos sempre,
na medida do possível e como já foi referido em nota anterior,
acompanhar a actualidade internacional que, como sabemos, é
dinâmica, imprevisível e cheia de surpresas. Tentaremos também
reforçar o carácter transdisciplinar incentivando a colaboração de
autores de outras áreas científicas. Mais uma vez se relembra que
está aberto em permanência, na página da Revista, um endereço de
e-mail para onde deverão ser enviadas as propostas de artigos, que
depois de submetidos às exigências do escrutínio por arbitragem
independente, poderão ser aqui publicados.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.34628/0eye-wf54
Lusíada. Política Internacional e Segurança, 21-22 (2021) 7
PROCEDIMENTO DE ARBITRAGEM CIENTÍFICA
Em estreita relação com a Política Editorial, a Revista Lusíada
– Série Política Internacional e Segurança foi pensada com o
objectivo de fornecer um conjunto de contributos científicos
originais e actualizados no campo da Ciência Política, das Relações
Internacionais e das Políticas de Segurança em geral. O procedimento
de arbitragem científica tem de ter obrigatoriamente em consideração
a especificidade da Revista tal como é descrita na Nota de Abertura
e Política Editorial. O Conselho Científico foi constituído por
investigadores nacionais e estrangeiros especializados nas diversas
áreas de investigação, como consta dos respectivos currículos. O
objectivo foi conciliar a necessária qualidade científica e a variedade
de especializações com a diversidade de temáticas.
Os membros do Conselho Científico serão os garantes da
qualidade e validade científica das diversas contribuições para
os números sucessivos da Revista. Assim, periodicamente serão
convidados segundo as respectivas qualificações científicas e
especialidades, a dar a sua opinião, em sistema de blind review, sobre
a qualidade dos textos, a orientação geral, os dossiers temáticos e
as diversas secções de cada número. Será solicitado a cada membro
um relatório onde constem devidamente explicitados, as diversas
observações e propostas de melhoria. Os resultados desta avaliação
traduzir-se-ão numa alteração, reajustamento ou rectificação quer
da linha editorial quer das contribuições presentes e futuras,
numa perspectiva evolutiva centrada na preservação da qualidade
científica e da actualização temática da Revista.
Lusíada. Política Internacional e Segurança, 21-22 (2021) 9
TURKIYE AS AN EMERGING POWER IN THE
HORN OF AFRICA
Selcan Karabektas
PhD Researcher at CERDAP2
(Centre d’Etudes et de Recherche sur la Diplomatie, l’Administration Publique et le Politique)
Sciences Po Grenoble, France.
Selcan.karabektas@cerdap2.fr
ORCID: 0000-0002-0649-7025
DOI: https://doi.org/10.34628/nnwr-kk51
Recebido: 13.05.2022
Aprovado: 28.10.2022
Lusíada. Política Internacional e Segurança, 21-22 (2021) 11
Turkiye as an emerging power in the horn of Africa, p. 9-30
Abstract: While the whole African continent is at the headline
politics of global and regional powers, the Eastern Africa, especial-
ly the Horn, has today been in the priority of African policies of
countries. This is mainly due to the fact that recent economic, po-
litical and security developments in the Horn of Africa have turned
the region especially the coastline, giving on to the Red Sea, the
Gulf of Aden, and the Indian Ocean, into one of the world’s most
important geostrategic locations. This transformation of the Horn
of Africa to a hub of security and economic activities pushes global
and regional powers to focus more on this region. Among emerg-
ing countries in the region, Turkiye can also be cited with its recent
policies towards Africa. Today, Turkiye attaches great importance
to the Horn African countries in terms of political, security, hu-
manitarian, development and even military aspects. Considering
all of these, this paper will cover the interest, challenges and aspira-
tions of Turkish engagement in the Horn of Africa, under the Gov-
ernment of Justice and Development Party from 2002 to our days
and tries to determine why Horn of Africa has a particular place in
Turkiye’s African policy. It aims to determine how the « Turkish
model » that occurred from the Turkish engagement in Somalia in
2011 has an impact on defining and structuring Turkiye’s approach
towards other countries in the region. Case study methodology,
which provides the understanding and analysis of complex issues,
will be applied from trying to answer to the questions “how” and
“why” of the research. Case study helps to explain both the process
and outcome of a situation through complete observation, recon-
struction and analysis of the cases under investigation. Empirical
data collection from various documents and books will be made.
Keywords: Horn of Africa; Turkiye; Somalia; Foreign policy.
Lusíada. Política Internacional e Segurança, 21-22 (2021) 13
Turkiye as an emerging power in the horn of Africa, p. 9-30
Introduction
With the beginning of the 21
st
century, where world powers
such as China and US compete with each other to maintain and in-
crease their influence in Africa, we also observe other actors such as
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Israel as well as Turkiye
which are also seeking to become key players in the continent. Tur-
kiye, the seventeenth world economy in 2017, whose trade volume
with Africa now reaches about 25 billion USD, is more determined
than ever to be a key player on this continent where it is looking
for new political allies and reliable economic partners.
1
The coming
to power of the Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma
Partisi-AKP) in 2002 marked the start of a new chapter for Turkish-
African relations. Indeed, the former Turkish Minister of Foreign
Affairs, Ismail Cem, prepared an Opening Plan to Africa in 1998,
but the economic crisis which hit the country in the same years did
not allow the government to put the plan into action. Few years
later, Turkiye could finally focus fully on developing its relations
with the continent in a meaningful way by declaring the year 2005
“Year of Africa”; AKP’s government openly expressed its interest
in focusing on the development of its relations with African coun-
tries at diplomatic, economic, cultural and religious levels.
2
While
the Turkish state had only 12 embassies in 2002 across Africa, it
has today a total of 44 diplomatic missions on the continent.
3
It is
in this context and through the principle of diplomatic reciproc-
1
Turkiye Istatistik Kurumu. Dis Ticaret Verileri. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/
2
Uchehara, K. (2008) «Continuity and Change in Turkish Foreign Policy toward Africa. » Gazi
Akademik Bakış, 2/3.
3
Official website of the Republic of Turkiye Ministry of Foreign Affairs, https://www.
mfa.gov.tr/turkiye-afrika-iliskileri.tr.mfa
14 Lusíada. Política Internacional e Segurança, 21-22 (2021)
Selcan Karabektas
ity that Ankara hosts today 38 embassies from African countries.
4
Turkish Airlines (THY) serves nearly 60 African destinations across
30 countries of the continent.
5
The total aid volume in Africa, gen-
erated by TIKA’s humanitarian and technical assistance (Turkiye’s
governmental Agency), was around $26.6 million in 2014; this fig-
ure doubled in 2017 to finally peak at $102.64 million in 2019.
6
This
humanitarian aid is beneficial to the image and development of
Turkiye’s global influence on the continent, constituting an impor-
tant factor of its soft power.
While the whole African continent is at the headline politics of
global and regional powers, the Eastern Africa, especially the Horn,
has today been in the priority of African policies of countries. This is
mainly due to the fact that recent economic, political and security de-
velopments in the Horn of Africa have turned the region especially
the coastline, giving on to the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the
Indian Ocean, into one of the world’s most important geostrategic
locations. In addition, it overlooks Bab el Mandab, one of the most
important straits that play a dominant role in global and regional
trade, and which is adjacent to the Arabian Peninsula. The strategic
importance of Bab el Mandab is crucial, indeed most of the commer-
cial activities between the markets of Asia and the Middle East and
Europe pass through this channel. More than 10% of maritime goods
are transported through its waters each year, including the majority
of Asian trade with Europe.
7
The Horn of Africa which for the pur-
pose of this study is defined as the region comprising Somalia, Ethio-
pia, Djibouti and Eritrea covers approximately two million square
kilometers (with Ethiopia as the largest country, covering over half
4
Official website of the Republic of Turkiye Ministry of Foreign Affairs, https://www.
mfa.gov.tr/turkiye-afrika-iliskileri.tr.mfa#:~:text=2002%20y%C4%B1l%C4%B1nda%20
sadece%2012%20B%C3%BCy%C3%BCkel%C3%A7ili%C4%9Fimiz,2022%20
y%C4%B1l%C4%B1nda%2044’e%20y%C3%BCkselmi%C5%9Ftir.
5
Official website of the Republic of Turkiye Ministry of Foreign Affairs, https://www.
mfa.gov.tr/turkiye-afrika-iliskileri.tr.mfa
6
TIKA Turkiye Kalkinma Raporlari (2019), https://www.tika.gov.tr/upload/sayfa/
publication/2019/TurkiyeKalkinma2019Web.pdf
7
De Waal, A. (2020) “The Red Sea: A vital artery for the world economy”. The Africa
Report Red Sea Dynamics Part 3.
Lusíada. Política Internacional e Segurança, 21-22 (2021) 15
Turkiye as an emerging power in the horn of Africa, p. 9-30
of the region’s area; 1.1 million square kilometers) and has a popula-
tion of 106.2 million (including 90 million in Ethiopia, 10 million in
Somalia, 4 million in Eritrea and 0.97 million in Djibouti).
8
Following the opening of the Suez Canal in 1869, the strategic im-
portance of Bab el Mandab strait has increased and the region became
an arena for different actors that want to compete. The region is also
well-known by hosting many military bases particularly in Djibouti
and Somalia.
9
This transformation to a hub of security and economic
activities pushes regional middle powers such as Saudi Arabia, Qa-
tar, United Arab Emirates, Israel and Turkiye to focus more on this
region, alongside the traditional powers like US and China that are
already implemented in the region through military bases and eco-
nomic collaborations. Among emerging countries in the region, Tur-
kiye can also be cited with its assertive policies towards Africa. Recep
Tayyip Erdogan, President of the Republic of Turkiye, then Prime
Minister in 2005, started his first tour in Africa with Ethiopia, one
of the core countries of the Horn.
10
President Erdogan was also the
first country leader to visit Somalia after nearly thirty years, since the
collapse of the central government in the country due to the ongoing
civil war in Somalia.
11
Today, Turkiye attaches great importance to
Somalia in terms of political, security, humanitarian, development
and even military aspects; it constructed its biggest embassy includ-
ing a military base in Somalia in 2017.
12
Considering all of these, this
paper will cover the interest, challenges and aspirations of Turkish
engagement in the Horn of Africa under the Government of AKP
from 2002 to our days and tries to determine why Horn of Africa has
a particular place in Turkiye’s African policy.
8
World Atlas. https://www.worldatlas.com/geography/horn-of-africa.html
9
US, Japan, France, China and Italy have military bases in Djibouti. For more information:
Jean Luc Martineau, “Djibouti et le « commerce » des bases militaires: un jeu dangereux
?” L’espace Politique. (2018).
10
Hürriyet Gazetesi. https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/gundem/erdogan-afrika-gezisine-
cikiyor-38701628 (2005).
11
TRT Haber. “Somali Ziyareti Dünya Basınında. (2011)” https://www.trthaber.com/
haber/dunya/somali-ziyareti-dunya-basininda-6550.html
12
Akpınar, P. (2017) “From Benign Donor to Self-assured Security Provider: Turkey’s
Policy in Somalia.” Istanbul Policy Center.
16 Lusíada. Política Internacional e Segurança, 21-22 (2021)
Selcan Karabektas
In the light of the information mentioned above, the main re-
search question of this paper is;
- At what level Turkiye’s foreign policy in the Horn of Africa
has a different particularity from its policies towards other
region of Africa?
Other sub-questions that will be attempted to be answered are;
- What is Turkiye’s historical ties with the region?
- What are Turkiye’s interests in the region?
According to this, I argue through this paper that the region of
the Horn of Africa has a priority in Turkiye’s Africa Policy because
of its historical and religious ties with the region and its economic,
military and strategic interests as a regional power.
Methodology
Qualitative research methodology is applied in this research.
Various sources such as interviews, documents, newspapers, arti-
cles, official documents etc. is used through an in-depth examina-
tion. Case study has been the main methodological process of this
study. According to Feagin, Orum and Sjoberg, for a holistic and
an in-depth investigation in social sciences, case study is the ideal
methodology.
13
It provides the understanding and analysis of com-
plex issues, which is applied from trying to answer to the questions
“how” and “why” of the research. Robert Yin, one of the promi-
nent methodologists in social sciences research strategy, explains
the concept of case study methodology as an empirical inquiry that
investigates a contemporary phenomenon within its real-life con-
text; when the boundaries between phenomenon and context are
not clearly evident; and in which multiple sources of evidence are
13
Feagin, J.R. Orum, A.M. and Sjoberg, G., (1991) A case for case study. Chapel Hill, NC:
University of North Carolina Press.
Lusíada. Política Internacional e Segurança, 21-22 (2021) 17
Turkiye as an emerging power in the horn of Africa, p. 9-30
used.
14
He proposed four applications for a case study model; to ex-
plain complex causal links in real-life interventions; to describe the
real-life context in which the intervention has occurred; to describe
the intervention itself and to explore those situations in which the
intervention being evaluated has no clear set of outcomes.
15
He also
identified six primary sources of evidence for case study research;
documentation, archival records, interviews, direct observation,
participant observation, and physical artifacts.
16
For the reliability
of this study, the researcher has used multiples of these sources.
Then, analysis of data and interpretation has been made in order to
enhance the reliability and validity of the investigation.
From Past to Present: Ottoman Empire in Africa
Turkiye’s relationship with the African continent is often
thought to begin on the Ottoman period. However, the first contact
of Turks with Africa goes back to pre-Ottoman times. The earliest
presence of the Turks in Africa dates back to the 9th century; in
the year 868, Ahmed Ibn Tulun, a Turkic emir converted to Islam,
who was in the service of the Abbasid caliphate of Baghdad, took
control of Egypt and established his own dynasty known as the
Tulunids.
17
The following centuries saw the arrival of many Turks
on the banks of the Nile, as well as in the neighboring regions of the
African continent, such as the Shia Fatimid Caliphate which was
known to employ Turkic mercenaries to fill the ranks of her own
armies. These Turks, being governors, mercenaries, or even slave-
soldiers, called Mamlukes, were often either very influential within
the political sphere of the Nile country, and sometimes eventually
14
Yin, R.B. (2009) “Case Study Research: Design and Methods.” Sage Publications ISBN:
0803956622 0803956630 (PBK.).
15
Yin, R.B. (2009) “Case Study Research: Design and Methods.” Sage Publications ISBN:
0803956622 0803956630 (PBK.).
16
Yin, R.B. (2009) “Case Study Research: Design and Methods.” Sage Publications ISBN:
0803956622 0803956630 (PBK.).
17
Hazar, N. (2011) «Küreselleşme Sürecinde Afrika ve Türkiye-Afrika İlişkileri» Uluslararası
Statejik Araştırmalar Merkezi Yayınları (USAK).